Defying the Odds by James W. Ceaser & Andrew E. Busch & John J. Pitney Jr

Author:James W. Ceaser & Andrew E. Busch & John J. Pitney Jr.
Language: eng
Format: epub
ISBN: 9781442273481
Publisher: ROWMAN & LITTLEFIELD
Published: 2017-03-10T05:00:00+00:00

AN OVERVIEW OF THE SURPRISE

Overall, Donald Trump’s victory in the Republican nominating contest was little short of astounding. He had defeated sixteen talented rivals and won more primary votes than any previous Republican aspirant despite having no political experience, breaking most of the received rules of presidential campaigning, being opposed by the vast majority of Republican officeholders and veteran activists, trampling on multiple tenets of traditional Republican doctrine, and polling worse against the probable Democratic nominee than all of his chief competitors.

Through his decisive win in Indiana, Donald Trump prevailed in twenty-seven state contests—twenty-five primaries and two caucuses—of the forty-two that were held. Ted Cruz won five primaries and six caucuses (if one includes Colorado, Wyoming, and North Dakota, where no first round results were tallied but Cruz was reported to have won the most delegates through the process), Marco Rubio one primary and one caucus, and John Kasich one primary. Through that point, Trump had won 40 percent of the total vote, Cruz 28 percent, and Kasich 14 percent.

Consequently, it is tempting to dismiss Trump as simply a minority nominee. No examination of his victory can ignore the fact that nearly two-thirds of the Republican primary and caucus vote went to someone other than Trump when it mattered. Trump was a singular figure whose unique campaign had the good fortune to be competing against sixteen more conventional opponents, at least half a dozen of whom were strong contenders. Even in Indiana, the last stand of the last holdouts, anti-Trump Republicans never got the one-on-one contest against Trump that might have stopped him. Not until mid-March did conservative leaders meet in Washington to formulate a strategy for unifying in the face of the Trump threat—too little, too late.

This recognition leads one to dwell on the potential importance of contingency. What if the GOP had swung behind Cruz after Wisconsin? If Kasich had left the race sooner? If Rubio had not been ambushed by Christie in New Hampshire? If Bush had not run, serving as an establishment lightning rod to Trump’s lightning, or run but not trained most of his fire on Rubio? If the rest of the field had taken the fight to Trump in the fall before he consolidated his lead in state after state?

Though the fractured field is the beginning of understanding the Republican primary campaign, it cannot be the end. One still has to account for the 40 percent who supported Trump through Indiana and their enthusiasm. In this respect, it is clear that Trump’s coalition was broader than many credited, and much broader than anyone else’s. Geographically, he won in states including New Hampshire and Massachusetts, South Carolina and Alabama, Virginia and Tennessee, Michigan and Indiana, Nevada and Arizona, Missouri and Maryland, New York and Delaware—New England, the deep South, the peripheral South, the Midwest, Southwest, border states, and mid-Atlantic: industrial states, financial capitals, and agricultural heartland. Demographically and politically, Trump had a core support that he secured consistently: lower-income voters, the less educated, older voters,

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